Sunday, April 23 almost 47 million French voters are called to the polls for the first round of presidential elections in 2017, and as ever this year the situation looks uncertain, with the four major candidates encased in a handful of points.
According to the average compiled French Huffington Post:
The centrist Emmanuel Macron (candidate of “En Marche”) is given to 23%
The leader of the Front National Marine Le Pen at 22.4%
The candidate of the center ( “Les Républicains”) François Fillon to 19.9%
For the radical left ( “la France Insoumise”) Jean-Luc Mélenchon , to 19.8% .
For comparison, the trend of the last month seems to reward Fillon slightly , but especially Mélenchon , who thirty days ago was credited by 12.7% – slightly more than its result of five years ago, when he stopped 11% – and today it would be close to 20 share.
uncertain result for runoff
At run-off on May 7 , in short, margin of error in hand could get really anyone of the four candidates now head: to go back to an uncertain outcome have to go back to 2002, when the late right-wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen , underdog given by the polls the day before, gained 16.8% and bared his feet from second place the former Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin , standing at 16.2, only to crash into the runoff against incumbent President Jacques Chirac (ended 82 to 18% %).
Of course, one of the key factors in such a tight game, and where almost 30% of voters were undecided says according to the study Cevipof-Le Monde , is the mobilization of the different electorates. Here are the most worrisome profiles Emmanuel Macron , and more hope to the two candidates reserve the right: of 100 current constituents of the “En Marche” candidate, in fact, only 68 are safe for their vote according to Ifop . A percentage similar to Jean-Luc Mélenchon (69) but by far lower than that of voters Fillon (81) and Le Pen (83). Much has in fact decide in these last days: Macron be able to convince the audience of voters who seems to consider voting for him, but it is not yet certain of her choice?
It weighs on the result age and profession of voters
In addition to uncertainty, another key fact of this election is the social composition of the different electorates, and surveys portend a split France not only politically, but also socially .
If they vote only young people under 35 years there would be no history, a runoff would be between Mélenchon (27%) and Macron (26%) with the candidate of the center, Fillon, remained at 9%.
If they vote only those over 65 it is Fillon to fill up with 39% of voting intentions : wide first with nearly twenty points ahead of ‘young’ Macron.
The situation does not change if, by age, you move towards the profession.
Also according to IFOP, each of the three leading candidates ( Macron, Le Pen and Fillon ) it is in fact in the lead in the voting preferences of at least one social class. It is interesting to note how distant are the voters of Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in social terms.
The National Front is still the first choice of French workers with 43% . No other candidate in any social class can boast such a high result. Marine Le Pen is also the first choice of non-qualified employees (31%) and the unemployed (35%).
The Macron constituency is composed predominantly of the qualified mpiegati (31%) and students (30%).
While Fillon is the a first choice among retirees (33%) and business leaders (26%).
Looking at the title of the study , we note the same electoral symmetry between Macron and Le Pen.
Former Economy Minister gets his highest among the graduates (31%) and the lowest among non-graduates (17%).
It is for non-graduates of the FN candidate does his best performance (32%) , only to lose votes, increasing the qualification, finishing in 10% of the holders of a degree.
The ‘geography’ of elections
This social divide has a geographical aspect also .
Emmanuel Macron has a fair share of his votes in Paris and surrounding area (26%) and in traditional areas roots of the French center-such as Britain (25%) and the west coast of France.
Marine Le Pen has its ramparts in the eastern regions like Alsace (31%) and Provence (31%).
Whoever wins – and that in itself, as we have seen, is yet to be understood – in short, you will have to deal with a France fragmented socially and politically , and will have to do it as early as from the legislative elections of ’11 and 18 June which will determine the composition of the new national Assembly.